May 2025 Market Update

After the Tariffs: A Shift in Housing Market Dynamics

With political and economic conditions changing rapidly, it's a challenging time to predict where things are headed. As of early April, consumer confidence and the stock market have taken sharp hits, while interest rates are climbing. These shifts may affect home affordability and construction costs, though the government expects long-term gains.

That said, most of the sales data in this report reflects deals made before the recent volatility. If current trends continue, we’ll likely see clearer impacts on the market in the months ahead.

So far in 2025, Bay Area real estate has remained active: sales volume is up, homes are selling faster, and listings have increased—though more sellers are adjusting prices. As the spring season continues, staying informed and flexible will be key for both buyers and sellers.

This index measures "economic policy uncertainty," which in March soared to its highest level since the pandemic struck. It seems almost certain that the April reading will be higher based on recent macroeconomic developments.

Stock market changes play a major role in household wealth and consumer confidence, which then impact housing markets. The extreme volatility in stock and other financial markets has shocked investors, analysts and economists.

Interest rates initially ticked down in the immediate aftermath of the announcement of unprecedented tariffs in early April, but then jumped as bond markets assessed possible broader ramifications of the new policies coming from Washington.

Median home sales prices ebb and flow on a seasonal basis, as well as being affected by economic conditions. As illustrated below, they typically hit their annual low points in mid-winter, then climb to peak at the end of the spring. Median prices have continued to rise on a year-over-year basis.

The biggest change in market conditions has been the large increase in the number of homes for sale: Much higher than in the past 4 years, though still well below pre-pandemic norms.

Another sign of market cooling has been the considerable increase in the number of listings reducing asking price. Buyers are well advised to keep a close eye on these homes for possible negotiating opportunities and advantageous deals.

Thinking of buying or selling in 2025? Let us be your trusted advisor for Silicon Valley Real Estate.